tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7349070.post2467070901726641204..comments2023-08-29T05:36:46.228-06:00Comments on cyber spirit cafe: Hard times on Higgins RoadDoug Kingshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12830571125611956474noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7349070.post-11629308636468763892009-11-15T19:24:21.345-07:002009-11-15T19:24:21.345-07:00Well David, economics obviously isn't the prim...Well David, economics obviously isn't the primariy topic here. As I said, I think the ELCA's longterm decline is more at issue here than either the current downturn or last August's churchwide assembly.<br /><br />That being said, I'll just offer my view that I don't believe this recession is over though it may have taken a pause. I think a "double dip" is a very real possibility. In any case, I think unemployment will remain high well into 2011. Residential and commercial real estate construction will remain very weak and consumer spending will come back very slowly. <br /><br />The primary difference between now and 1983 is that there is no apparent engine for a recovery. The Federal stimulus spigot cannot remain open indefinitely. Exports and technological innovation are probably our best hopes.Doug Kingshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12830571125611956474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7349070.post-75944636337354890132009-11-12T12:15:05.340-07:002009-11-12T12:15:05.340-07:00This is not the worst recession since the Great De...This is <i>not</i> the worst recession since the Great Depression - it has very closely followed the length, depth and effects of the severe recession in the early 1980's. Study of the 1983 recovery has provided very useful advice for my professional clients (e.g., Ford Motor Company _ I am very proud to be one small part of the team doing economic analysis for the guys who <i>didn't</i> go bankrupt). <br /><br />So, we need to look at the need for any layoffs at ELCA predecessor bodies around the end of 1982 through the early 1983 - that's where we are in this business cycle. A difference between that recession and now will be specific to one-time current challenges facing the ELCA independent of economic conditions.David Corlisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08170535495471561543noreply@blogger.com